There is a jump in everyone of those and this means that consumers are becoming more active and consuming more. Another interesting index is our real-time mobility index, which examines hotel room bookings, restaurant reservations and airport activity. These are higher today than ever before and growing at a rate of 20% per year, this shows that the labor market is healthy and more importantly that the American consumer will have money to spend. I really like the index of withholding tax because it shows the tax payments of the companies on a weekly basis. economy, but the economy needs to be examined in depth and all the indicators we tend to look at show that the economy continues to be strong. A yellow flag has been raised over the U.S. "We respect what the yield curve signals and in the last six recessions there has been a reversal before, but we are not bothered by it. The amount of cargo and shipments that have accumulated is decreasing, delivery times are decreasing, inventory levels are now as they were before the pandemic and as a result of all this, a decrease in transport prices is beginning, both by sea and by land." Another reason for our lower interest rate forecast has to do with supply chains where we see early signs of relief. Here in the U.S., for example, mortgage rates have risen to 5%, corporate bond yields, mainly from smaller companies, are higher than 6% and these are things that could slow down the economy. economy, and in fact the global economy, has become much more sensitive to interest rates than in the past. The second thing we rely on is the fact that the U.S. If you examine this trend it will bring you to this number of 2-2.25%. There are two reasons: the first is that if you go back to 1980, in each of the interest rate tightening cycles, one after the other, the next peak in the interest rate was lower and lower. I think it's too aggressive and the interest rate will only go up to 2-2.25%. That is, we will move from the situation we are in now, where the interest rate is 0.25% to 3%. If you recall late last summer, there was no expectation that interest rates would rise this year and now the expectation is for nine raises this year and three more times next year. It's very important to see how quickly expectations have changed about what the Federal Reserve plans to do this year. "That's the big question for the market right now.
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